Looking for value in the Breeders’ Cup Classic

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• Posted by Travis

Over at Horse Racing Nation we developed a polling system which translates votes into odds based upon the popularity of the various participants. The poll right now is for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic with the current favorite (as of Tuesday afternoon) being Zenyatta, at 3-1, with 19% of the votes. This price seems fairly representative of what we can expect her off-odds to be when the gates open.

If the poll is a loose but somewhat close representation of where the odds will actually end-up, I have a hard time getting excited about betting the race. For more of an idea where I feel the odds will be, check out our silks page which features a morning line made by yours truly. Comparing the two, Girolamo is offering significant value at 27-1 versus the 8-1 I made him earlier this week. Beyond him, only Einstein and Gio Ponti offer value (albeit slimly). I priced Einstein at 6-1 and the poll currently indicates 8-1. I made Gio Ponti 8-1, the poll is offering 9-1.

Honestly, I like the chances of both contenders. Einstein is a such gritty, hard-knocking veteran who seems to prefer synthetic surfaces over the other surfaces he’s raced on. Gio Ponti meanwhile is cutting-back in distance off an auto-toss given the conditions on grass. Some would argue his prior synthetic efforts were not fast enough but I would contend they were before he “got good” this summer.

Is there enough pace for the closers?

I spent a few minutes earlier today looking closely over the contenders and developed my idea of the race shape. Before you look, note the chart is deceiving. I do not anticipate Regal Ransom getting an easy lead. Both Quality Road and Summer Bird have strong tactical speed and will use it if things are too quiet on the lead.

 Here is how I perceive the race to shape-up…

I do not anticipate the pace hitting the extremes. If anything, it maybe tilt towards fast if the right situation presents itself. Therefore, I am leaning towards the right two columns for the ultimate winner of the race. If Quality Road, Girolamo or Summer Bird are rank or into the bit they will surely help Regal Ransom move the pace along.

Right now, I only have two tosses from the win spot: Mine That Bird and Awesome Gem. It’s a very competitive race which makes looking for value all the more important. Hopefully my opinion will firm-up as the day draws closer.

What do you think?

Travis
Ready for the Cup

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