Who are the longshots on Breeders’ Cup Friday?
Day one of the Breeders’ Cup on first-pass was rather uninspiring from a wagering standpoint. I felt the various favorites throughout the card looked rather tough and the possibility of a longshot parade was small.
I persisted and found a few horses you can stab with and feel good about your chances relative to their likely odds. Here are some longshots you can have fun with today….
Juvenile Fillies Turf – (5) La Nez
If she was coming into this race showing a third in the Debutante instead of a win in the Cal Cup, I’m guessing her price would be lower than the 20-1 in the Breeders’ Cup odds it will likely be today. Ultimately, I don’t think she’s any worse than the majority of her rivals today on paper and predict she sits the right trip. Whispering Hush, third in the Cal Cup Juvenile Fillies, came back last weekend to win a turf maiden with an 85 Beyer.
Juvenile Fillies – (12) Biofuel
With Connie and Michael’s one-dimensional speed I am anticipating a pace meltdown somewhere around the far turn. Biofuel’s start in the Mazarine was solid with a five or six wide rally and strong finish. I think Blind Luck is the most likely winner, but Biofuel on the board at a big price? Definitely possible.
Filly & Mare Turf – (1) Visit
There is a severe lack of pace in this race. Visit improved sharply last time being involved with the early going and figures to be the early going today. She is likely to fade a bit late as she’s somewhat camera shy, but could help juice-up the exotics a bit.
Filly & Mare sprint – (5) Silver Swallow and (6) Evita Argentina
I would really love Evita Argentina if she were coming in second-off the layoff. However, she’s a good closing sprinter none-the-less. Silver Swallow is as well. If you can forgive the layoff, she’s prime for underneath at a nice price.
Ladies’ Classic – (2) Life is Sweet
I think Careless Jewel is a candidate to regress, or bomb, and that leaves the door open for some closers. Technically not a longshot, Life Is Sweet has been trying to break through all summer but has been compromised by slow pace after slow pace. She loves Santa Anita and will hopefully outrun her juicy odds which should be anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1.