Post Time Traffic Jam
Post times often reflect what traffic is like on the 405 (shown right).
When driving in heavy traffic, like the traffic show in the image, the ideal scenario is for all drivers to work in unison, drive at the same speed and maintain an appropriate distance between their vehicles.
Post times and horse racing should follow the same logic. When five or six racetracks are running on a single afternoon, races should be spread and spaced appropriately to allow for easy flow of the wagering dollar from bettors across the nation.
Earlier this year I made a quick jaunt to Oaklawn with a friend of mine on a Thursday afternoon. There were four major signals to enjoy: Oaklawn, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park. Despite the relatively quiet schedule, there was still plenty of overlap, particularly when it came to Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds. On a few occasions, both tracks were even mid-race at the same time!
If the goal is to simply compete with each other, this makes sense. Offer both products at the same time and let the customer pick. Horse racing, however, is not in position to make such a move. Instead, post times should be coordinated to better suit the bettor and help the flow of the gambling dollar.
As you can see below with the charts, this past weekend similar situations developed. While not as extreme as mid-race at the same time, there were many large gaps of dead time between races. This is time when bettors would be betting IF there was something to bet on.
Most horseplayers jump-in on a race a starting few minutes before post and right-up until post time. The majority horseplayers are constantly asking, “What race is coming up next?” As a result, being the next race is a key advantage.
Below is a spreadsheet of the Saturday post times (adjusted to Eastern Standard Time). I highlighted long periods of dead time between races to illustrate the point.
The common track amongst the gaps is Tampa Bay Downs. Saturday was Florida Cup Day with twelve races overall. Below are estimates of their handle on the entire card, which was about $7 million overall (this is a touch low compared to their actual as I left out the pick six for discussion purposes). Their per-race average was $583,690.
Notice how their top-handled races on the card are also highlighted on the post time chart above. This parallel is not a coincidence. Their top five races on Saturday were all preceded by at least a 10 minute break in the action amongst the major tracks. Conversely, their sixth race, without any significant gap (and a small field), was the lowest handled race amongst the stakes.
Tampa Bay Downs illustrates how effective this gap is and how managing your post times can lead to better figures. Furthermore, on their most handled race they had a scheduled post of 3:14 and an actual off time of 3:29. If they had stuck to the original post time they would have raced one minute behind Gulfstream Park’s fifth race. Such congestion would have completely eliminated their ability to post a good number. Ultimately, by my estimation, Tampa Bay Downs out handled last year’s Florida Cup Card by about $700,000.
Horse racing should be working to create a more cohesive schedule of post times. There should be an entity or individual who overseas the daily racing schedule, helps eliminate unnecessary breaks in action and creates a more polished, effective and streamlined program of racing on a daily basis.
Yesterday was opening day in Major League Baseball. The various games being broadcast were staggered to allow fans to watch as many games as possible (one was even pushed-back last minute to capitalize on viewership). If every game started at 4:00pm, how much revenue would have been left on the table?
The same can be said of races and racing.
04/07/09 10:31 pm
Good topic Travis and very frustrating for the horseplayer. I follow horseracing everyday and still do not know what the real purpose of what the NTRA is or what they do, but shouldnt this be an area where the NRTA gets its member tracks together to agree on schedule to benefit all? Like you mentioned, if not for the benefit of the horseplayer directly the tracks should selfishly adjust to increase their handle. I dont get it.
I had completed all my handicapping by noon est pre scratches for Aqueduct, Keeneland, a little Hawthorne and Santa Anita. Usually would have only played Keeneland and Santa Anita but because of the big races looked at the other two cards as well. By mid afternoon I had given up on trying to follow Aqueduct with so much going on and too much overlap. I placed a small all stakes pick 4 at AQU and tossed the Form aside for AQU.
In the day of simulcasting, staggering races is more important than ever. Not just for big days but for all days. Very few people go to a track, especially where there is no live racing at that track, to play just one track. The problem and solution to it seems like common sense and maybe thats why its so hard to reach a consensus between the tracks.
04/11/09 6:41 am
good topic Trav! i know that on a much smaller scale at PM, we are always trying to stay away from not only the biggies, but especially off of other west coast tracks, as we know many players play regionally.