Who are the longshots on Breeders’ Cup Friday?
Day one of the Breeders’ Cup on first-pass was rather uninspiring from a wagering standpoint. I felt the various favorites throughout the card looked rather tough and the possibility of a longshot parade was small.
I persisted and found a few horses you can stab with and feel good about your chances relative to their likely odds. Here are some longshots you can have fun with today….
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Looking for value in the Breeders’ Cup Classic
Over at Horse Racing Nation we developed a polling system which translates votes into odds based upon the popularity of the various participants. The poll right now is for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic with the current favorite (as of Tuesday afternoon) being Zenyatta, at 3-1, with 19% of the votes. This price seems fairly representative of what we can expect her off-odds to be when the gates open.
If the poll is a loose but somewhat close representation of where the odds will actually end-up, I have a hard time getting excited about betting the race. For more of an idea where I feel the odds will be, check out our silks page which features a morning line made by yours truly. Comparing the two, Girolamo is offering significant value at 27-1 versus the 8-1 I made him earlier this week. Beyond him, only Einstein and Gio Ponti offer value (albeit slimly). I priced Einstein at 6-1 and the poll currently indicates 8-1. I made Gio Ponti 8-1, the poll is offering 9-1.
Honestly, I like the chances of both contenders. Einstein is a such gritty, hard-knocking veteran who seems to prefer synthetic surfaces over the other surfaces he’s raced on. Gio Ponti meanwhile is cutting-back in distance off an auto-toss given the conditions on grass. Some would argue his prior synthetic efforts were not fast enough but I would contend they were before he “got good” this summer.
Is there enough pace for the closers?
I spent a few minutes earlier today looking closely over the contenders and developed my idea of the race shape. Before you look, note the chart is deceiving. I do not anticipate Regal Ransom getting an easy lead. Both Quality Road and Summer Bird have strong tactical speed and will use it if things are too quiet on the lead.
Here is how I perceive the race to shape-up…
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Four Years down, what’s next?
Another season of racing at Louisiana Downs came to a close on Sunday. The weather was horrendous, which summed-up the weather for the past few weeks quite well.
It is hard to believe it was also the end of my fourth year of race calling here. On one hand, it seems like just yesterday I was hustling interviews for The Saratoga Special. On the other hand, it seems like I’ve been announcing at Louisiana Downs forever.
There were lots of highlights throughout the season including Regal Ransom’s victory in the Super Derby. I pushed very hard during the off-season to increase the purse of the Super Derby to help maintain its status (and eventually help it grow) as a premiere race. I believe the result certainly paid off.
I’m most excited about what Regal Ransom and Blame will do down the road. Blame was totally pace compromised in the Super Derby, yet still managed a late rally. Regal Ransom, though loose-on-the-lead, is very talented and will win his fair share of races as well.
Off-Season Follies
I’m often asked what I do once the Louisiana Downs meet is over. Fortunately, I’m a full-time employee and have already started working on next year’s racing season. I have a few new ideas/initiatives I would like to try (more on those later). Plus some larger, more time consuming projects as well.
This year a few additions we made to our product, though subtle, were significant. For one, I wanted to transform our starting gate sign so we could better market our big race days. Our old sign did not “pop” well at all. You can see the old vs. new below.
Thoughts on Race Calls
From a race calling perspective, I really feel like my calls came across well. I did battle a nagging throat congestion issue (too many details, I know) throughout much of the second-half of the meet, but managed to push through. I improved in a lot of areas – much of which the average listener would never notice – and found other areas of my calls I can try and take more advantage of.
For those who know me, I’m moderately obsessed with race calling so when it comes to details, I notice every little thing.
Meanwhile, I’m headed to the sunny state of Florida next week for a vacation, followed by a couple of days at Keeneland before returning to Bossier City for the Breeders’ Cup. Should be fun!