There are several phases and processes in the user interface design, some of which are more demanded upon than others, depending on the project. (Note: for the remainder of this section, the word system is used to denote any project whether it is a web site, application, or device.)

You Need a Heading here.

Functionality requirements gathering – assembling a list of the functionality required by the system to accomplish the goals of the project and the potential needs of the users.

User analysis – analysis of the potential users of the system either through discussion with people who work with the users and/or the potential users themselves. Typical questions involve:

• What would the user want the system to do?
• How would the system fit in with the user’s normal workflow or daily activities?
• How technically savvy is the user and what similar systems does the user already use?
• What interface look & feel styles appeal to the user?

Maybe another one here

User interface design or user interface engineering is the design of computers, appliances, machines, mobile communication devices, software applications, and websites with the focus on the user’s experience and interaction. The goal of user interface design is to make the user’s interaction as simple and efficient as possible, in terms of accomplishing user goals—what is often called user-centered design. Good user interface design facilitates finishing the task at hand without drawing unnecessary attention to itself.

Graphic design may be utilized to support its usability. The design process must balance technical functionality and visual elements (e.g., mental model) to create a system that is not only operational but also usable and adaptable to changing user needs.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design. Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design. Graphic design may be utilized to support its usability. The design process must balance technical functionality and visual elements (e.g., mental model) to create a system that is not only operational but also usable and adaptable to changing user needs.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design.

There are several phases and processes in the user interface design, some of which are more demanded upon than others, depending on the project. (Note: for the remainder of this section, the word system is used to denote any project whether it is a web site, application, or device.)

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There are several phases and processes in the user interface design, some of which are more demanded upon than others, depending on the project. (Note: for the remainder of this section, the word system is used to denote any project whether it is a web site, application, or device.)

You Need a Heading here.

Functionality requirements gathering – assembling a list of the functionality required by the system to accomplish the goals of the project and the potential needs of the users.

User analysis – analysis of the potential users of the system either through discussion with people who work with the users and/or the potential users themselves. Typical questions involve:

• What would the user want the system to do?
• How would the system fit in with the user’s normal workflow or daily activities?
• How technically savvy is the user and what similar systems does the user already use?
• What interface look & feel styles appeal to the user?

Maybe another one here

User interface design or user interface engineering is the design of computers, appliances, machines, mobile communication devices, software applications, and websites with the focus on the user’s experience and interaction. The goal of user interface design is to make the user’s interaction as simple and efficient as possible, in terms of accomplishing user goals—what is often called user-centered design. Good user interface design facilitates finishing the task at hand without drawing unnecessary attention to itself.

Graphic design may be utilized to support its usability. The design process must balance technical functionality and visual elements (e.g., mental model) to create a system that is not only operational but also usable and adaptable to changing user needs.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design. Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design. Graphic design may be utilized to support its usability. The design process must balance technical functionality and visual elements (e.g., mental model) to create a system that is not only operational but also usable and adaptable to changing user needs.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design.

There are several phases and processes in the user interface design, some of which are more demanded upon than others, depending on the project. (Note: for the remainder of this section, the word system is used to denote any project whether it is a web site, application, or device.)

There are several phases and processes in the user interface design, some of which are more demanded upon than others, depending on the project. (Note: for the remainder of this section, the word system is used to denote any project whether it is a web site, application, or device.)

You Need a Heading here.

Functionality requirements gathering – assembling a list of the functionality required by the system to accomplish the goals of the project and the potential needs of the users.

User analysis – analysis of the potential users of the system either through discussion with people who work with the users and/or the potential users themselves. Typical questions involve:

• What would the user want the system to do?
• How would the system fit in with the user’s normal workflow or daily activities?
• How technically savvy is the user and what similar systems does the user already use?
• What interface look & feel styles appeal to the user?

Maybe another one here

User interface design or user interface engineering is the design of computers, appliances, machines, mobile communication devices, software applications, and websites with the focus on the user’s experience and interaction. The goal of user interface design is to make the user’s interaction as simple and efficient as possible, in terms of accomplishing user goals—what is often called user-centered design. Good user interface design facilitates finishing the task at hand without drawing unnecessary attention to itself.

Graphic design may be utilized to support its usability. The design process must balance technical functionality and visual elements (e.g., mental model) to create a system that is not only operational but also usable and adaptable to changing user needs.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design. Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design. Graphic design may be utilized to support its usability. The design process must balance technical functionality and visual elements (e.g., mental model) to create a system that is not only operational but also usable and adaptable to changing user needs.

Interface design is involved in a wide range of projects from computer systems, to cars, to commercial planes; all of these projects involve much of the same basic human interactions yet also require some unique skills and knowledge. As a result, designers tend to specialize in certain types of projects and have skills centered around their expertise, whether that be software design, user research, web design, or industrial design.

There are several phases and processes in the user interface design, some of which are more demanded upon than others, depending on the project. (Note: for the remainder of this section, the word system is used to denote any project whether it is a web site, application, or device.)

[frame src="http://racecalling.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/louisiana-downs-dirt.jpg" width="630" height="350" lightbox="off" title="Louisiana Downs" align="left" ][space height="15"]

The Louisiana Downs main track can be a tricky surface. During sustained periods of dry weather, the rail often becomes deep and tiring allowing for outside closers to overcome the loss of ground sustained when making their move.

In the 2010 Super Derby, many felt that Populistic Politics should have won the race after making a five-wide move on the far turn. I would argue, however, that the outer paths around Super Derby last year were the place to be, or at least not as “bad” as the loss of ground would typically suggest.

During last year’s meet one astute handicapper, who plays the races here regularly, tipped me off to the bias. He also indicated that many of the riders were not aware of it either, and that’s when I began to take notice.

This year, however, the track has felt more kind to inside runners than in recent years. But when it comes to handicapping (and the subsequent gambling), a little hard data can never hurt.

As we count down the days to the 33rd running of the Super Derby, I took some time to compile a comprehensive profile of the main track at Louisiana Downs for two turn races.

Running Styles

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Post Position Stats (1 Mile and up)

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Louisiana Downs Dirt Track: Fair And Balanced

The tables above shows that this year the main track at Louisiana Downs, for two-turn races, is playing fair. All running styles have won races and not one particular style is dominating more than typical in American racing. Furthermore, horses are winning from the rail to the outside. Simply put, there is no readily identifiable bias or tendency when it comes to the races.

Ultimately, it all boils down to pace, as Noble Alex and Weldon Cloninger, Jr. showed this past weekend. From an inside post, Noble Alex went straight to the lead while the others pulled back and rated. The result? A wire-to-wire win at at 9-1.

[frame src="http://racecalling.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/noble-alex-chart.png" width="630" height="IMAGE_HEIGHT" lightbox="on" title="Noble Alex" align="left" ]

[frame src="http://racecalling.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/belmont-stakes-2012.jpg" width="630" height="350" lightbox="off" title="Ill Have Another" align="left" ][space height="15"]

Using Beyer Speed Figures, Photoshop and a little creative license, I created the image above showing I’ll Have Another pulling away just after the eighth pole en route to a Belmont Stakes victory and a Triple Crown score.

If I’ll Have Another started in the Belmont Stakes, what would have happened? The general consensus is pretty loud and clear: he would have won and ended the 34 year Triple Crown drought.

Take nothing away from Union Rags, who won the race fair-and-square, and vindicated himself after waves of scrutiny surrounded the gutsy colt following a pair of subpar performances in the Florida and Kentucky Derbies. He won the Belmont Stakes, silenced the doubters and is now one of the top horses in the division.

But it was hard as they came down the stretch, and more so on replay, to avoid the nagging thought: What would have happened if I’ll Have Another had run?

It’s easy to speculate, guess and otherwise assume certain results. Visually speaking, it felt as though he would have won. In terms of pace, race shape and flow, it would have fit him to aplomb. But again, visual assessments of a horse race can often fool. When the Beyer speed figure was announced though – a 96 – I felt pretty confident I’ll Have Another would have won, even though I was going to bet against him.

Trying To Beat I’ll Have Another

In the days leading-up to the Belmont Stakes, the horse racing fan in me wanted him to win by open lengths. The horseplayer in me, however, felt as though he was sitting on a regression.

In the Kentucky Derby, I’ll Have Another posted a 101 speed figure after running down an exhausted Bodemeister, who was softened-up after being chased by a talented sprinter in Trinniberg. The dynamics combined with the perfect trip from post 19 led me to believe that running back to his Derby figure would be tough.

In the Preakness he not only ran back to his Derby number, but he sailed past it posting a 109, approximately four to five lengths faster than his Derby win. While he proved, hands down, that he was the top 3-year-old, the questions were legitimate as to whether or not he’d be able to do it again just three weeks later.

[frame src="http://racecalling.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/ill-have-another-past-performances.png" width="600" height="200" lightbox="on" title="Ill Have Another Past Performances" align="none" ][space height="15"]

I planned on trying to beat I’ll Have Another at the windows with the assumption that he would come back to his Derby figure while one or two of his rivals would improve and thus spring the upset. It didn’t seem too far fetched as Paynter had figures on paper that would support this idea and Dullahan only had to improve a few points as well.

Would He Have won?

It turns-out, however, that it would have taken a significant regression for I’ll Have Another to lose. I said during various conversations last week that even his “B” game would probably win. In hindsight, I think his “C” game would have won the Triple Crown as well.

[message_box title="How much would he have won by?" color="yellow"]Let’s say I’ll Have Another did regress to his Kentucky Derby figure of 101 (an aggressive assumption). On the Beyer scale, a five point difference is equal to approximately 4-1/2 lengths. Thus I’ll Have Another would have won the Belmont by more than four lengths, ending 34 years of Triple Crown disappointment in just 2-1/2 minutes.[/message_box]

Ultimately, we’ll never know. Anything could have happened. Perhaps he stumbles at the break, or the pace complexion changes as other riders try to beat him. Regardless, there will always be the question, “What if?”

The Triple Crown has a knack for disappointment – like when Smarty Jones was caught in the final strides of a race that is still depressing to watch even to this day. Yet despite all of this, I know of very few horse racing fans who aren’t counting down the days till we can do it again.

What do you think? Post your thoughts in the comments below…

Over the past few weeks I began reviewing result charts, jotting down horses who won and paid $30 or more to win. I then reviewed their past performances hoping to find an emerging pattern or two that might help me identify the next big priced winner. This exercise would also, hopefully, identify leaks in my handicapping such as over-valuing or under-valuing certain variables.

Amidst the usual angles (turf-to-dirt, route-to-sprint, trainer switch etc.) a pattern did begin to emerge, and it grew in strength as the sample size grew, and it all centered around layoffs.

The Various Flavors of Layoffs

One of the hardest variables to decipher is the layoff. In horse racing, a layoff is defined as a lack of starts for a long period time, typically 45 days or more.

[message_box title="Racing Into Shape..." color="yellow"]A horse away from the races is naturally expected to be less fit than those who have been racing more frequently. Thus with each subsequent start, the fitness level should naturally increase and make the horse a more viable wagering option.[/message_box]

Handicappers often refer to these horses as being “second-off the layoff” or “third-off the layoff.” One of my friends loves to bet on horses he calls  ”90 day, two preppers” – that is, horses who were off for 90 or more days and have two preps coming into the race.

I hypothesized horses making their second or third start off the layoff tend to have clouded form since they are likely short of peak fitness during their return races and thus offer more value in their third attempt.

To test this, I gathered a sample size of more than 83,000 starters over the past two years and determined whether they were first, second or third off the layoff (I used 45 days as the cutoff) and how they performed.

While win betting all starters – all 83,000 thousand of them – would lose you money over the long run, horses who were third off the layoff won 14-percent of their races, and produced the highest ROI.

With this data in mind, I focused my research toward third-off the layoff runners, such as Lady Repent at Oaklawn on Saturday, March 6, to see if any specific patterns emerged.

Making her fifth career start at Oaklawn Park, Lady Repent was third-off the layoff following a two month break over the holiday season. Her past performances looked like this (click each PP for the full view)…

In her first start of the year – an ambitious two-turn route for a filly who had only sprinted and was away from the races for more than 60 days – she broke last, made-up a little ground in the middle portion of the race and faded late to be a well-beaten seventh. In her next start, however, she showed rapid improvement breaking near the lead, setting the pace and giving-up just short of the wire.

With two starts to her name, including a sharp improvement last-out, Lady Repent was primed for her best effort yet. She dueled through fast fractions, put away the other speed and pulled away late to win at 24-1 with a winning Beyer of 58.

Patterns similar to Lady Repent’s continued to emerge. Here are a few more examples with their past performances from the race they won.

Ask Aunt Amber wins at 16-1 by nearly three lengths on March 6 at Oaklawn Park – Race 4

Two races after Lady Repent won, Ask Aunt Amber went to the gate at 16-1 despite marked improvement over two most recent races, and won by nearly three lengths despite bumping at the start and going three wide. Her winning Beyer was a 49, for a three race pattern of 12-31-49.

Across The Wind at 23-1 by two-lengths on March, 2 at Charles Town – Race 8

After a somewhat poor 2011 debut, Across the Wind improved when shortened-up for his second start of the year. He cut the defecit of his prior loss in the half, improved his Beyer 11 points and used that start to propel him to a two-length win at 23-1. His three race Beyer pattern was 42-53-67.

Idon’tknogoaskanni scores at 12-1 on March 2 at Tampa Bay Downs – Race 3

Like the other examples, Idon’tknogoaskanni showed significant improvement in her second start off the layoff and was poised for her best race yet. She delivered with a last-to-first rally at 12-1, posting a Beyer figure of 50.

Key Findings: Profiling The Winning Longshots

While not all winning longshots were third off the layoff, enough of them were to pique my interest. And of all the angles that surfaced, none were more powerful. Here are a few things I’ve made a mental note of for future handicapping efforts:

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• The general public does not do a good job of predicting pending improvement or decline and opts instead to judge a horse based on its recent past performances only. An ability to predict rising or declining form is an excellent way to cash more tickets.
• Flashes or hints of a horse on the improve should not be ignored. Many of the winners either made-up ground or flashed speed during their return races.
• Speed figures are all relative. A horse who went from a zero to a 16 showed improvement, just like a horse who goes from a 70 to an 86. Ignore even the slightest improvements in Beyer’s at your own risk.
• Improving figures is not necessarily a requirement, however. Pairing-up or showing improving form is often enough. Spantastic earned a 65 on March 8 after a pair of 47′s in his first two starts of the year. He won by more than eight lengths at 15-1 in his third start of the year:

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The Horse Is Key, But Trainers Play A Role

While I was roughing-out this post, and gathering screenshots and data, I posted a message on my Twitter feed asking what people look for when handicapping a horse coming off a layoff. The responses were varied, but they all carried the same flavor as this one:

So I started to look into the trainer’s impact by zeroing in on a few high-performers from the study I did earlier. I used Daily Racing Form’s Formulator to verify the findings (Formulator is a must-use tool for any serious handicapper).

While there are dozens of trainers who do well third-off (for example, Todd Pletcher’s ROI third-off is better than his overall ROI), here are three I found interesting:

• Edward Plesa, Jr. - Southern Florida-based Plesa is an 16-percent winner over the past five years with an ROI of $1.55. When I asked Formulator how he does third-off the layoff, his winning percent rose to 19%, and his ROI into the black at $2.06. On December 17 at Calder last year he started a colt named Passthepasta Plesa third-off the layoff following Beyer’s of 46 and 53. He won by 2-1/2 lengths at 10-1 with a figure of 71.
• Murray Rojas, who races primarily in Pennsylvania, is an 18-percent winner with an ROI of $1.74. When third-off the layoff his win percentage increases to 22% and his ROI rises to $2.64. In February he started a filly named Cindyrella who flashed speed in her two starts off a two-month layoff with figures of 48 and 51. She won by 7-1/2 lengths in her third start of the season at 9-2 with a Beyer of 62.
• Donald Hunt won only seven races in 2010, good for an 8-percent strike rate. His ROI is slightly negative at $1.80. He’s much better when third-off, however, where his winning percentage is 20% and his ROI a juicy $9.16 (aided by a couple of big longshots). In August last summer he started a filly named Requital who used two races with figures of 36 and 35 to set her up for a 52 third-off, good enough for a half-length win at 24-1. It was the second time she won third off the layoff. Earlier in May, she broke her maiden at 58-1. Hunt decided to try it for the third time in December, but Requital faded badly and lost by more than 20 lengths. Alas, there is no such thing as a sure thing.

Parting Thoughts

I found as I reviewed the past performances of the horses shown above, and forty or so other longshots, sometimes a horse will simply outrun its paper form and be nothing but a surprise. Other times I realized my personal handicapping was loaded with bad habits, such as putting too much stock into the trainer stats that run along the bottom of a horse’s past performances.

Ultimately, there is no better way to learn than to learn from the past. Looking at winning longshots from the previous week has been a great tool in opening my mind to things I usually miss. I encourage everyone to give it a try, and see where it takes them.

I’m curious to know what you think. Please share your thoughts/comments below, and also let me know what angles you use the most when handicapping. Good luck at the races!

Blame holds-off Zenyatta to win the Breeders' Cup Classic, and should be crowned Horse of the Year. Photo by Eclipse Sportswire.

The debate figures to rage-on well into the New Year about whether or not Horse Of The Year is Blame or Zenyatta. Their respective records are similar, their abilities only a head apart.

The challenging part about this year’s award is that Zenyatta brought the Breeders’ Cup to an entirely new group of people including millions of non-racing fans. Even if the bulk of them tuned-in for just a few minutes to watch the race, no horse brought horse racing to the fore like she did since Smarty Jones and his Triple Crown bid. Is this Horse of the Year worthy? It’s worthy of something, that’s for sure.

Blame, on the other hand, defeated Zenyatta fair and square when the big money was on the line. The team with the best record doesn’t always end-up with the World Series trophy, and the same applies in horse racing. At the end of the day, I think we have to remember that horse racing is ultimately a competition and the very nature and definition of competition and sport says there will be a winner, and there will be a loser. In this case, the winner was Blame.

Not all races create the right scenario for the horses to bring their best stuff. In the Classic, however, both horses were able to run their race.

The pace of the race set-up perfectly for both Zenyatta and Blame

The pace of the Breeders’ Cup Classic was insanely fast. The raw fractions don’t tell the story. The top four horses after six furlongs wilted to finish 8th, 12th, 10th and 11th respectively. They separated themselves from the field by a wide margin down the backstretch before the race completely collapsed at the quarter pole, making it a free-for-all for any horse coming from off the pace.

Of those closers, the two to watch were Zenyatta and Blame. As the field rounded the far turn, both Blame and Zenyatta started to wind-up with their late kicks. It would be a two furlong dash to the wire – who gets there first?

In the critical final furlong, Blame had what was needed left in the tank

If you watch the replay, Garrett Gomez moved Blame out a few paths around mid-stretch so he could hear Zenyatta coming. And when he did, Blame dug-in. The most telling shot was the close-up shown by ESPN in the highlight reels all evening. It showed how Blame never let her nose get in front of him. And after the wire, the stride many argue Zenyatta needed most, still had Blame in front.

Mike Smith was quoted in numerous places as feeling sorry or bad for the loss, as if it were his fault. I would argue he put her in the perfect position to win the race, unfortunately for them, another horse had enough left to hold off her late kick.

Some have said it was too bad Zenyatta was so far back. I say it’s a good thing she was, because if she were any closer, there is no way of knowing how the pace would have impacted her ability to finish the way she did.

Those arguing Zenyatta lost her momentum or found trouble at the top of the stretch are also digging deep. She swung outside and had one and one-half furlongs to catch Blame. The difference in this race versus almost every other race she ran was that the horse she was trying to run down had something left.

For all the talk about Zenyatta’s performance, take nothing away from Blame. Trip handicapping is more than finding which horse was stuck wide, or checked on the turn.

Like Zenyatta, Blame not only had to rally from off the pace without trouble, he was also one of the first horses to make a move for the lead while the race was falling apart. Being one of the first horses to collapse a race like this is hard. Lookin at Lucky made the same move, and he faded badly late to be fourth.

Furthermore, as the field turned for home, the difference between Blame and Zenyatta was nothing more than two lengths. There was no unconquerable deficit between the two…

The difference between Blame and Zenyatta was nothing more than a few lengths with a little more than two furlongs to go.

There is no shame in how Zenyatta ran

Staying undefeated is exciting, people have a natural fascination with it, but there is no shame in how Zenyatta ran. She ran her race, and she came-up short. It was without a doubt the most exciting horse race I have ever seen. The energy and excitement for the thirty minutes leading-up to the race was indescribable. Two weeks later, the emotional downturn lingers.

I firmly believe though that Horse of the Year was decided in the final strides of the Classic. Bringing into the equation the what-ifs or arguments like “if they ran this race one hundred times” is nothing more than fodder. If that’s the case, then Smarty Jones should have a Triple Crown trophy next to his stall.

It doesn’t matter if Zenyatta avoided races like the Hollywood Gold Cup, or that Blame lost the Jockey Club Gold Cup. You could take a whiteboard and start dissecting the various fields and horses both horses beat this year, but ultimately, the best way to test the skills, abilities and talents of two horses is to race them.

I thought Todd Pletcher said it best in the Daily Racing Form, “For me, the deciding factor in any close calls is head-to-head matchups.”

Zenyatta is without a doubt worthy of an award or honor to recognize what she did for racing this year, but Horse of the Year was won by Blame in the Classic.

How good will the Europeans be in this year's Breeders' Cup? - Photo by rockcohen

One of my biggest pet peeves is the blanket, umbrella-like response of “I like the Euros” or “The Euros will be tough” when it comes to handicapping the Breeders’ Cup. Rather than drilling down into the races (because without flushed-out running lines, the past performances seem kind of… foreign) and replays of the various European invaders, handicappers hedge and refer to them all as one, knowing they’re usually live and offer an “easy” way to tab a winner.

If picking ‘The Euros’ was so easy and obvious, why would their average win odds be higher than 10-1 in the 25 year history of the Breeders’ Cup? For every Ouija Board and Goldikova, there’s a Lashkari (54-1) and Last Tycoon (36-1).¹

This year’s Breeders’ Cup, however, might be the one time I grant a pass to anyone throwing a blanket over the Europeans, and if everything stays the same between now and November, I might start saying it myself.

The Euros are winning (almost) everything from the Ryder Cup to the Nearctic

I took some time to comb the result charts of all grade one turf races run in North America this year and highlighted the horses whose last race came in Europe. The total number of starters was 29, and seven of them won. The flat-bet ROI was a juicy $4.49. In other words, if you bet $2 to win on every Euro shipper in grade one races on turf this year, you made money.

This list is rather telling when you consider the horses sent over here during the spring and summer months are never the top-tier horses the Europeans have to offer.

The big races in Europe are run during the summer months, so their top horses stay there to compete in them. By the time the Breeders’ Cup rolls around, however, the big races are over, and the horses ship East for the Breeders’ Cup. With their primary goals behind them, the Breeders’ Cup comes at the right time to take a shot, and see if there’s any gas left in the tank. And therein lies one of the keys to making money on the Europeans.

After a year long campaign in Europe against the best of the best, it’s hard to ship overseas and maintain peak performance against the best North America has to offer. With its prestige and high purses, the Breeders’ Cup for many of them is the bonus round. Now take this idea, turn it around, and you can make some money.

The #1 Angle For Handicapping The Euros

If recent trends are any indication, the Euros will be tough to beat in this year’s Breeders’ Cup (see above chart). With that in mind, here is what I believe is the #1 angle to use when handicapping these shippers.

Look for European horses who have been pointed to the Breeders’ Cup all along, or are least likely to feel the rigors of a long, rough summer campaign.

These horses are ones coming off mini-layoffs or freshenings, or are second-off the layoff with a start usually in September or early October.

Here’s an example…

In the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Turf, Hurricane Run was labeled the horse to beat as one of the summer stars of European racing. As their season wound-down though, he ran in both the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the Champion Stakes, both grade ones just two weeks apart. After game efforts in both, he shipped East for a try in the Turf, just three weeks later. Three races in five weeks, including a ship overseas, is a tough task. The public didn’t seem to mind as he was bet down to 3-1.

Meanwhile, Red Rocks, who was also competitive in a variety of big races, was freshened-up for the Cup after finishing third in the St. Leger Stakes at York in September. He figured to be the fresher of the two and was almost four times the price while showing similar ability on paper.

At 11-1 Red Rocks rallied from ninth to win paying $23.60. Hurricane Run never threatened finishing sixth.

The first time Conduit won the Breeders’ Cup Turf in 2008 he was nearly 6-1. He was also second-off the layoff following a sharp win in the St. Leger at Doncaster. Conduit followed a similar pattern en route to victory in 2009. You can the see pattern for both wins on his PPs from the 2009 advance.

While no angle is foolproof, or without its flaws, this approach is a useful angle when attacking the turf races on Breeders’ Cup weekend. When the pre-entries come out, I’ll update this post with a list of those who fit the criteria. Good luck!

Now 19-for-19, I think Zenyatta will be 5-2 on the morning line for the Classic - Photo By Eclipse Sportswire

The morning line favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a foregone conclusion, but how the betting goes behind Zenyatta makes for an interesting discussion. Because it’s never too early to get excited about a big race, I took a few minutes to build a line using the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes Tracker on Horse Racing Nation as a guide to the probable field.

For starters, I made Zenyatta the 5-2 morning line favorite. Last year she went off closer to 3-1 than 5-2 (her exact odds were $2.80-to-1), but her reputation is stronger this year. That said, last year she seemed more explosive from a visual standpoint and she was racing on her favorite surface (as far as we know). This year, her kick seems somewhat less deadly, and on pure speed figures (risky on synthetics, I know), she’s not quite as fast. Ultimately, however, 5-2 is a deserving and realistic line on the defending champ.

Because of the bulky field, you can run out of points quickly when making a line. I target 130-135 percentage points each time I make one, and this one comes out to exactly 130.7.

Lookin at Lucky at 4-1 might cause a chuckle, but consider how popular 3-year-olds are with the wagering public along with the appeal of Bob Baffert and the horse’s big closing effort in the Indiana Derby. Personally, I think he’s an underlay around this price, but the public figures to bet him well. I did a few searches on Google and found some offshore and European sites listing him as the second choice as well.

Blame and Quality Road are both a toss-up into how much action they take. Handicappers love the sheer speed and raw ability of Quality Road, but are correctly skeptical of his ability to get ten furlongs. Blame’s recent loss might raise a few question marks as well.

I originally wanted to make Haynesfield 8-1 out of respect for his Jockey Club Gold Cup win, but I ran out of points (because I felt I would have to pull a few others down as well). From there I thought the horses fell into a logical order. As for the Europeans, I generally feel they are over bet in the Classic, particularly when it’s held on dirt, and the same applies for Espoir City.

There is plenty of pace targeting the Classic

Regardless of the morning line, there appears to be plenty of pace targeting the race. First Dude, Haynesfield, Morning Line and Quality Road have plenty of tactical speed. Espoir City could quickly add gas to the mix if he runs as well. With so much pace it’s hard to imagine any of them sticking around, including Quality Road. Unfortunately, those who figure be bet the most are also the ones who are most likely to close.

At first glance, a horse like Fly Down could be an intriguing prospect to hit the board at a good price. And if the race completely collapses, Pleasant Prince to round-out the superfecta at 30-1 (or higher) is plausible as well.

There’s nothing like handicapping a race more than one month before it’s to be run!