Archive for the ‘Observations’ Category

Calvin Borel’s secret sauce

Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

Mine That Bird’s win in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby was puzzling, surprising, exciting and unexpected. That’s the game. But as pointed out to me by a respected handicapper and friend, it shows how Calvin Borel might have discovered the secret sauce for riding in the Kentucky Derby.

If there was such thing as a past performance for a jockey’s history in the Kentucky Derby, Borel’s pattern would be a sure bet:

borel-derby-pps1

Saying he is in good form would be an understatement. In fact, he has shown nothing but continual improvement over the course of his career in the race. How does he do it? (more…)

Post Time Traffic Jam

Tuesday, April 7th, 2009

Post Times are like traffic on the 405Post times often reflect what traffic is like on the 405 (shown right).

When driving in heavy traffic, like the traffic show in the image, the ideal scenario is for all drivers to work in unison, drive at the same speed and maintain an appropriate distance between their vehicles.

Post times and horse racing should follow the same logic. When five or six racetracks are running on a single afternoon, races should be spread and spaced appropriately to allow for easy flow of the wagering dollar from bettors across the nation.

Earlier this year I made a quick jaunt to Oaklawn with a friend of mine on a Thursday afternoon. There were four major signals to enjoy: Oaklawn, Aqueduct, Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park. Despite the relatively quiet schedule, there was still plenty of overlap, particularly when it came to Oaklawn and the Fair Grounds. On a few occasions, both tracks were even mid-race at the same time!

If the goal is to simply compete with each other, this makes sense. Offer both products at the same time and let the customer pick. Horse racing, however, is not in position to make such a move. Instead, post times should be coordinated to better suit the bettor and help the flow of the gambling dollar.

As you can see below with the charts, this past weekend similar situations developed. While not as extreme as mid-race at the same time, there were many large gaps of dead time between races. This is time when bettors would be betting IF there was something to bet on.

Most horseplayers jump-in on a race a starting few minutes before post and right-up until post time. The majority horseplayers are constantly asking, “What race is coming up next?” As a result, being the next race is a key advantage.

Below is a spreadsheet of the Saturday post times (adjusted to Eastern Standard Time). I highlighted long periods of dead time between races to illustrate the point.

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Racing on TV: Why the pan shot doesn’t work

Monday, March 30th, 2009

The standard, typical pan-shot we have become accustomed to in horse racing is stale and drab to the eyes of a non-racing fan. It’s like watching a football game from start-to-finish with one camera angle, or showing every pitch in a baseball game from the press box camera above home plate. Imagine watching the Daytona or Indy 500’s with just one camera shot. Heck, even professional bowling utilizes multiple views.

For some reason, however, horse racing fans seems to complain – a lot – when networks take away their precious pan shot. Remember the 2007 Kentucky Derby? NBC went to the blimp for the run around the far turn, just as Street Sense was working his way through the pack. The outcry from horseplayers was loud and clear, but off base.

What is the goal of broadcasting a horse race, particularly one like the Kentucky Derby, to a national audience? Is it to reproduce the racetrack’s in-house signal for hardcore gamblers and bettors? No, those individuals are watching the race on YouBet or TwinSpires or at a wagering facility. Instead the goal is to generate interest, spawn excitement and lure new fans. Above that, it’s to provide entertainment.

Sorry, but to the people racing needs to reach, a camera angle a half-mile away from the greatest two minutes in sports is not entertaining. (more…)